荷蘭防長警告：俄羅斯可能在烏克蘭停火一年後進行大規模軍事行動

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(Olga Maltseva/AFP via Getty Images)

荷蘭國防部長魯本·布雷克爾曼斯（Ruben Brekelmans）在近期於荷蘭巴恩舉行的安全會議上表示，根據荷蘭軍事情報部門的評估，俄羅斯可能在烏克蘭停火或達成和平協議約一年後，準備進行大規模的軍隊調動。

布雷克爾曼斯請與會者設想，俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京在與波羅的海國家接壤的邊境部署數十萬軍隊，進行大規模演習的情景。他指出，從烏克蘭的經驗來看，我們可能僅能提前一週得知這樣的行動究竟是演習，還是攻擊的準備。

這一評估比歐洲防務專員安德留斯·庫比柳斯（Andrius Kubilius）此前的警告更為緊迫。庫比柳斯曾引述丹麥和德國的情報，表示俄羅斯可能在2030年前測試北約的第五條共同防禦條款。

丹麥國防情報局在二月的一份報告中評估稱，如果烏克蘭的戰爭停止或凍結，俄羅斯將能釋放出「顯著」的軍事資源，從而增加對北約國家的威脅能力。在這種情況下，俄羅斯可能在約兩年內準備好在波羅的海地區發動區域性戰爭。

布雷克爾曼斯強調，普京多次表示希望為蘇聯解體復仇，並恢復其勢力範圍。他指出，俄羅斯持續投資於戰爭工業和士兵招募，經濟完全依賴戰爭工業運作。

荷蘭目前在立陶宛部署了部隊，作為北約部署的一部分，並在愛沙尼亞駐紮F-35戰機，執行波羅的海地區的空中警戒任務。

布雷克爾曼斯表示，荷蘭正在考慮需要哪些安全保障，以確保烏克蘭實現「公正且持久的和平」，並需要準備在政治決定做出後，可能參與歐洲的軍事任務。

北約秘書長強調俄羅斯導彈威脅，呼籲聯盟團結

北約秘書長馬克·呂特（Mark Rutte）近日警告稱，俄羅斯先進的導彈技術使其能夠在短時間內攻擊歐洲多個城市。他強調，面對俄羅斯的威脅，北約必須保持團結與警惕。 

俄羅斯在北極地區的軍事活動引發關注

俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京表示，北極地區的地緣政治競爭正在加劇，但仍有可能與外國夥伴進行經濟合作。普京強調，俄羅斯將加強在該地區的軍事能力，以維護其主權和國家利益。 

波羅的海地區成為俄羅斯與北約緊張關係的新焦點

近期，俄羅斯與北約在波羅的海地區的緊張關係升級。俄羅斯軍艦與北約軍機之間的對峙事件頻繁發生，顯示該地區已成為雙方「影子戰爭」的新熱點。 

拉脫維亞警告：烏克蘭戰爭「凍結」可能使俄羅斯在五年內威脅北約

拉脫維亞安全部門警告稱，如果烏克蘭戰爭停止或凍結，俄羅斯可能在五年內重建軍事力量，對北約和歐洲國家構成威脅。 

Dutch Defense Minister Warns: Russia May Undertake Large-Scale Military Action One Year After Ukraine Ceasefire

Dutch Defense Minister Ruben Brekelmans recently stated at a security conference in Baarn, Netherlands, that according to assessments by the Dutch military intelligence service, Russia might prepare for a large-scale troop movement approximately one year after a ceasefire or peace agreement in Ukraine.

Brekelmans urged attendees to imagine a scenario where Russian President Vladimir Putin stations hundreds of thousands of troops on the border with the Baltic countries for a large-scale exercise. He pointed out that, based on Ukraine’s experience, we might only know a week in advance whether such a move is indeed an exercise or preparation for an attack.

This assessment appears more urgent than previous warnings by European Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius, who cited Danish and German intelligence indicating that Russia might test NATO’s Article 5 mutual defense clause by 2030.

The Danish Defence Intelligence Service assessed in a February report that if the war in Ukraine stops or freezes, Russia could free up “significant” military resources, thereby increasing its capability to pose a credible threat to NATO countries. In such a case, Russia might be ready to fight a regional war in the Baltic Sea area within about two years.

Brekelmans emphasized that Putin has repeatedly expressed a desire for revenge over the breakup of the Soviet Union and aims to restore its sphere of influence. He pointed out that Russia continues to invest in its war industry and in recruiting soldiers, with its economy entirely reliant on the war industry.

Currently, the Netherlands has troops stationed in Lithuania as part of a NATO deployment and has F-35 jets stationed in Estonia for air policing duties over the Baltic Sea region.

Brekelmans stated that the Netherlands is considering what security guarantees are needed to ensure a “just and lasting peace” in Ukraine and needs to be prepared for potential participation in a European military mission, should that political decision be made.

NATO Secretary General Highlights Russian Missile Threat, Calls for Alliance Unity

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently warned that Russia’s advanced missile technology allows it to strike multiple European cities within a short timeframe. He emphasized that NATO must remain united and vigilant against Russia’s threats.

NATO Secretary General Highlights Russian Missile Threat, Calls for Alliance Unity

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently warned that Russia’s advanced missile technology allows it to strike multiple European cities within a short timeframe. He emphasized that NATO must remain united and vigilant against Russia’s threats.

Russian Military Activities in the Arctic Raise Concerns

Russian President Vladimir Putin stated that geopolitical competition in the Arctic is intensifying but suggested that economic cooperation with foreign partners is still possible. He emphasized that Russia will strengthen its military presence in the region to safeguard its sovereignty and national interests.

Baltic Region Becomes New Flashpoint in NATO-Russia Tensions

Recent developments show growing tensions between Russia and NATO in the Baltic region. Frequent confrontations between Russian naval vessels and NATO aircraft indicate that the area has become a new hotspot for their “shadow war.”

Latvia Warns: Frozen Ukraine War Could Enable Russia to Threaten NATO Within Five Years

Latvian security agencies have warned that if the war in Ukraine halts or freezes, Russia could rebuild its military strength within five years, posing a serious threat to NATO and European countries.